Looking at 2018, the economic research institutes expect the robust upward trend to continue. Since 2017 was a rather difficult year for the net advertising market, industry experts’ growth forecasts for video advertising on TV and in digital media are more positive again for 2018. At the same time, the relevance of e-commerce offerings is increasing in the wake of digitalization.
The German economy is estimated to have grown by 2.2% in real terms in 2017; the economic research institutes considerably increased their economic forecasts for the past year on several previous occasions. The institutes also expect the robust upward trend to continue in 2018. Private consumer spending is likely to increase solidly again with rising employment and higher incomes. At the same time, construction activity, corporate investment and exports are expected to benefit from the good global economic situation, rising demand and favorable financing conditions. In this context, the growth expectations for real gross domestic product (GDP) are between 2.2% (DIW) and 2.6% (ifo Institut), while for private consumer spending they are between 1.5% (DIW) and 2.0% (Leipniz Institute for Economic Research Halle, IWH). For the eurozone, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) anticipates stable growth of 2.2% for 2018 (previous year: 2.4%); the global economy is likely to expand by 3.9% (previous year: 3.7%). However, at the same time there are significant geopolitical uncertainty factors such as the conflict in North Korea, ongoing Brexit negotiations and new upheavals in the European banking sector. Economic Development, Risk Report
110 / Forecast for GDP, Private Consumption and Net Advertising Market in Countries Important for ProSiebenSat.1 in %, change vs. previous year
Source: GER: Destatis, ifo Economic Forecast from December 14, 2017. / AT: European Commission, European Economic Forecast Autumn 2017. CH: SECO Economic Forecast from December 19, 2017.
1 ZenithOptimedia, advertising expenditure forecast December 2017, figures adjusted on a net basis, nonetheless methodological differences between different countries and sources.
The German net TV advertising market drew less benefit from the positive macroeconomic data in 2017. This was due to sector-specific developments, whose duration and efficacy cannot yet be conclusively assessed. However, the slowdown in the reporting period is not affecting the TV advertising market in Germany alone, but the entire European advertising market. Major advertising agencies already revised their revenue forecasts in August 2017. Against this backdrop, agency groups now forecast net TV market growth of between 1.0% and 3.5% in the 2018 sports year (WARC: 3.5%, ZenithOptimedia: 2.8%, Magna Global: 1.0%). For 2018, the agency groups anticipate net growth of the German overall advertising market of between 1.7% and 2.3% (WARC: 2.3%, ZenithOptimedia: +2.3%, Magna Global: 1.7%). In-stream video advertising is likely to develop particularly dynamically and drive growth of the online advertising market. The agency groups expect the online advertising market in Germany to record net growth of around 7% (WARC: 6.1%, ZenithOptimedia: 8.0%, Magna Global: 8.7%). Development of the TV and Online Advertising Market
VoD will also continue to grow. According to Statista’s Digital Market Outlook, the SVoD market relevant to ProSiebenSat.1 is expected to generate around EUR 601 million in 2018 (2017: EUR 534 million). The market volume is set to amount to EUR 665 million by 2020. For the PayVoD market (subscriptions and pay-per-view), Statista anticipates a volume of EUR 864 million for 2018. PwC, VPRT, Astra and OVum forecast that the pay TV market will grow to a volume of EUR 4.2 billion by 2021. Development of Media Consumption and Advertising Impact
According to Statista’s Digital Market Outlook, digital commerce is expected to grow at an annual rate of around 7% until 2022, as more and more products and services are being purchased online. Overall, the e-commerce market in Germany in 2018 is expected to grow by 10% to a market volume of around EUR 63 billion. The Center for Retail Research in Cologne expects online revenues in the amount of EUR 80.4 billion by the year 2021; the share of online retail is expected to increase to 13.1%. The share of mobile shopping could increase to 61% of online revenues by 2021. This would correspond to online mobile revenues of around EUR 49 billion.
The various areas differ in their dynamic; the market for online comparison sites in the fields of energy, telco, car insurance and consumer loans is likely to grow to a volume of around EUR 900 million by 2020. This equates to a growth rate of 12% since 2016. According to Statista’s Digital Market Outlook, the online dating market is likely to grow by 15.7% by 2020. OC&C Strategy Consultants1 forecasts annual growth rates for the experiences market of approximately 5% to 7% until 2022.
1 In the context of the for ProSiebenSat.1 Group prepared Commercial Due Diligence Report.