Due to the positive market forecasts for the entertainment business and the consistent diversification and transformation of the Group, we anticipate further growth in revenues in 2018. Meanwhile, the ProSiebenSat.1’s profitability/adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to remain in the mid 20 percent range. We are aiming to achieve an average increase in revenues in the mid single-digit percentage range per year by 2022.
New segment structure
ProSiebenSat.1 Group is driving forward its digital transformation and has bundled its portfolio in the three pillars of Entertainment, Content Production & Global Sales and Commerce since the beginning of 2018 (Fig. 112). In this way, the Group is reacting to the dynamic environment and improving its positioning for further profitable growth. As part of this realignment based on a three-pillar strategy, the Group also intends to achieve a net savings potential of over EUR 50 million by 2019/2020, which will entail an improved cost development in the Entertainment segment despite further investments in programming and in areas such as AdTech and data. The new segment structure is reflected accordingly in this Company Outlook. Organization and Group Structure, Opportunity Report
111 / Explanatory Notes on the Forecast
Due to planned adjustments to the target parameters in the compensation system, EBITDA will no longer be included as one of the most important financial performance indicators for the Entertainment and Commerce segments. The qualitative comparative forecasts for the segment key figures of external revenues and adjusted EBITDA (stable, low, medium, and significant) are based on the anticipated positive or negative percentage deviations from the previous year. Effects from the changeover to the new IFRS accounting standards (particularly IFRS 16) as of January 1, 2018, are reflected in the forecast. The information provided refers to the plans adopted by the Executive Board and Supervisory Board. Our statements are also based on general economic and sector-specific data at the time this report was prepared. Notes, “Changes in reporting standards,” page 256 Planning and Management, Future Business and Industry Environment
Forecast for 2018
The market forecasts for our entertainment business are positive. At the same time, we have set the course for a successful future with the further diversification and transformation of ProSiebenSat.1. We therefore expect to increase our consolidated revenues further in 2018 (Fig. 113). Meanwhile, the Group’s profitability/adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to remain at the previous year’s high level in the mid 20 percent range. With regard to adjusted net income, the Group anticipates a conversion rate of adjusted EBITDA to adjusted net income at the high level of the previous year, too. Additional contributions from acquisitions that may take place this year are not yet reflected in this financial outlook. Opportunity Report
ProSiebenSat.1 is pursuing a long-term financing policy for its M&A activities with a target range for the leverage ratio of 1.5 to 2.5, which the Group will also maintain in the future. At the same time, ProSiebenSat.1 is continuing its earnings-oriented dividend policy. The aim is to pay 80% to 90% of adjusted net income as a dividend each year. The ProSiebenSat.1 Share
|
2017 |
Forecast for 2018 |
Revenues |
4,078 |
Increase in the low to mid single-digit percentage range |
Adjusted EBITDA margin |
25.8 |
Mid 20 percent range |
Adjusted net income |
52 |
~50% |
Leverage ratio |
1.6x |
1.5x – 2.5x |
In the Entertainment segment, we anticipate a low increase in revenues in 2018, also leading to a low increase in adjusted EBITDA. We also still expect to maintain our leading position with regard to audience shares in the advertising-relevant target group of 14- to 49-year-olds at a high level. In the Content Production & Global Sales segment, we anticipate significant increases in both revenues and adjusted EBITDA in 2018. For the Commerce segment, we are forecasting a low decrease in external revenues and a medium decline in adjusted EBITDA. (Fig. 114)
|
2017 |
Forecast for 2018 |
|||||
|
|||||||
Entertainment |
|
|
|||||
External revenues |
2,737 |
Low increase |
|||||
Adjusted EBITDA |
898 |
Low increase |
|||||
Content Production & Global Sales |
|
|
|||||
External revenues |
523 |
Significant increase |
|||||
Adjusted EBITDA |
18 |
Significant increase |
|||||
Commerce1 |
|
|
|||||
External revenues |
818 |
Low decrease |
|||||
Adjusted EBITDA |
135 |
Medium decrease |
Mid-term financial targets
At its Capital Markets Day on December 6, 2017, ProSiebenSat.1 applied its current financial targets for 2018 to new medium term revenue growth and margin ranges. The Group expects to continue its profitable growth and is aiming to achieve an average increase in revenues in the mid single-digit percentage range per year by 2022. At the same time, the Group anticipates a further increase in operating earnings and a profitability in the mid 20 percent range based on the adjusted EBITDA in the medium term.
115 / Predictive Statements
Forecasts are based on current assessments of future developments. In this context, we draw on our budget planning and comprehensive market and competitive analyses. The forecasted values are calculated in accordance with the reporting principles used in the financial statements and are consistent with the adjustments described in the Management Report. However, forecasts naturally entail some uncertainties that could lead to positive or negative deviations from planning. If imponderables occur or if the assumptions on which the predictive statements are made no longer apply, actual results may deviate materially from the statements made or the results implicitly expressed. Developments that could negatively impact this forecast include, for example, lower economic momentum than expected at the time this report was prepared. These and other factors are explained in detail in the Risk- and Opportunity Report. There we also report on additional growth potential; opportunities that we have not yet or not fully budgeted for could arise from corporate strategy decisions, for example. Potential risks are accounted for regularly and systematically as part of the Group-wide risk management process. Significant events after the end of the reporting period are explained in the Notes, Note 36 “Events after the reporting period.” The publication date of the Annual Report 2017 is March 15, 2018.
116 / Overall Assessment of Future Development – Management View
We are optimistic about the future: Forecasts for the TV business and our digital markets are positive. At the same time, we have made preparations for future growth on the basis of further developing our digital and diversification strategy. This is why we expect consolidated revenues to increase and the profitability/adjusted EBITDA margin in the mid 20 percent range in 2018.
Our objective is to continuously increase the Company’s value and to establish new revenue drivers that our shareholders can benefit from in the long run. With free advertising time on TV we have an additional investment currency. This allows us to invest in growth without large amounts of cash and to distribute an attractive dividend at the same time. We are sticking to our earnings-oriented dividend policy and the leverage ratio target range of 1.5 to 2.5.
dividend depends, among other things, on the profitability, economic situation and dividend policy of the company. The basis of assessment for the distribution is the profit calculated according to commercial law.