Due to the positive market forecasts for the entertainment business and the consistent diversification and transformation of the Group, we anticipate further growth in revenues in 2018. Meanwhile, the ProSiebenSat.1’s profitability/ margin is expected to remain in the mid 20 percent range. We are aiming to achieve an average increase in revenues in the mid single-digit percentage range per year by 2022.

New segment structure

ProSiebenSat.1 Group is driving forward its digital transformation and has bundled its portfolio in the three pillars of Entertainment, Content Production & Global Sales and Commerce since the beginning of 2018 (Fig. 112). In this way, the Group is reacting to the dynamic environment and improving its positioning for further profitable growth. As part of this realignment based on a three-pillar strategy, the Group also intends to achieve a net savings potential of over EUR 50 million by 2019/2020, which will entail an improved cost development in the Entertainment segment despite further investments in programming and in areas such as and data. The new segment structure is reflected accordingly in this Company Outlook. Organization and Group Structure, Opportunity Report

112 / New Segment Structure since January 1, 2018

New Segment Structure Since January 1, 2018 (Graphic)
111 / Explanatory Notes on the Forecast

Due to planned adjustments to the target parameters in the compensation system, will no longer be included as one of the most important financial performance indicators for the Entertainment and Commerce segments. The qualitative comparative forecasts for the segment key figures of external revenues and adjusted EBITDA (stable, low, medium, and significant) are based on the anticipated positive or negative percentage deviations from the previous year. Effects from the changeover to the new IFRS accounting standards (particularly IFRS 16) as of January 1, 2018, are reflected in the forecast. The information provided refers to the plans adopted by the Executive Board and Supervisory Board. Our statements are also based on general economic and sector-specific data at the time this report was prepared. Notes, “Changes in reporting standards,” page 256 Planning and Management, Future Business and Industry Environment

Forecast for 2018

The market forecasts for our entertainment business are positive. At the same time, we have set the course for a successful future with the further diversification and transformation of ProSiebenSat.1. We therefore expect to increase our consolidated revenues further in 2018 (Fig. 113). Meanwhile, the Group’s profitability/adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to remain at the previous year’s high level in the mid 20 percent range. With regard to , the Group anticipates a conversion rate of adjusted EBITDA to adjusted net income at the high level of the previous year, too. Additional contributions from acquisitions that may take place this year are not yet reflected in this financial outlook. Opportunity Report

ProSiebenSat.1 is pursuing a long-term financing policy for its M&A activities with a target range for the of 1.5 to 2.5, which the Group will also maintain in the future. At the same time, ProSiebenSat.1 is continuing its earnings-oriented policy. The aim is to pay 80% to 90% of adjusted net income as a dividend each year. The ProSiebenSat.1 Share

113 / Expected Group key figures in 2018

 

2017

Forecast for 2018

Revenues
(in EUR m)

4,078

Increase in the low to mid single-digit percentage range

Adjusted EBITDA margin
(in %)

25.8

Mid 20 percent range

Adjusted net income
(conversion rate of adjusted EBITDA to adjusted net income in %)

52

~50%

Leverage ratio
(net financial debt/
LTM adjusted EBITDA)

1.6x

1.5x – 2.5x

In the Entertainment segment, we anticipate a low increase in revenues in 2018, also leading to a low increase in adjusted EBITDA. We also still expect to maintain our leading position with regard to audience shares in the advertising-relevant target group of 14- to 49-year-olds at a high level. In the Content Production & Global Sales segment, we anticipate significant increases in both revenues and adjusted EBITDA in 2018. For the Commerce segment, we are forecasting a low decrease in external revenues and a medium decline in adjusted EBITDA. (Fig. 114)

114 / Expected segment key figures in 2018 in EUR m

 

2017

Forecast for 2018

1

Including deconsolidation effects from the travel business.

Entertainment

 

 

External revenues

2,737

Low increase

Adjusted EBITDA

898

Low increase

Content Production & Global Sales

 

 

External revenues

523

Significant increase

Adjusted EBITDA

18

Significant increase

Commerce1

 

 

External revenues

818

Low decrease

Adjusted EBITDA

135

Medium decrease

Mid-term financial targets

At its Capital Markets Day on December 6, 2017, ProSiebenSat.1 applied its current financial targets for 2018 to new medium term revenue growth and margin ranges. The Group expects to continue its profitable growth and is aiming to achieve an average increase in revenues in the mid single-digit percentage range per year by 2022. At the same time, the Group anticipates a further increase in operating earnings and a profitability in the mid 20 percent range based on the adjusted EBITDA in the medium term.

115 / Predictive Statements

Forecasts are based on current assessments of future developments. In this context, we draw on our budget planning and comprehensive market and competitive analyses. The forecasted values are calculated in accordance with the reporting principles used in the financial statements and are consistent with the adjustments described in the Management Report. However, forecasts naturally entail some uncertainties that could lead to positive or negative deviations from planning. If imponderables occur or if the assumptions on which the predictive statements are made no longer apply, actual results may deviate materially from the statements made or the results implicitly expressed. Developments that could negatively impact this forecast include, for example, lower economic momentum than expected at the time this report was prepared. These and other factors are explained in detail in the Risk- and Opportunity Report. There we also report on additional growth potential; opportunities that we have not yet or not fully budgeted for could arise from corporate strategy decisions, for example. Potential risks are accounted for regularly and systematically as part of the Group-wide risk management process. Significant events after the end of the reporting period are explained in the Notes, Note 36 “Events after the reporting period.” The publication date of the Annual Report 2017 is March 15, 2018.

116 / Overall Assessment of Future Development – Management View

We are optimistic about the future: Forecasts for the TV business and our digital markets are positive. At the same time, we have made preparations for future growth on the basis of further developing our digital and diversification strategy. This is why we expect consolidated revenues to increase and the profitability/adjusted EBITDA margin in the mid 20 percent range in 2018.

Our objective is to continuously increase the Company’s value and to establish new revenue drivers that our shareholders can benefit from in the long run. With free advertising time on TV we have an additional investment currency. This allows us to invest in growth without large amounts of cash and to distribute an attractive dividend at the same time. We are sticking to our earnings-oriented dividend policy and the ratio target range of 1.5 to 2.5.

Adjusted EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA stands for adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. It describes earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, adjusted for certain influencing factors.
Glossary
AdTech
The umbrella term AdTech refers to all products, providers, systems, and tools relating to advertising technology. AdTech forms the basis for programmatic advertising, for data-based, automated, and individualized buying and selling, and for real-time adjustment of advertising space. The entire process – from commissioning to performance of the service – take places within the technology platforms provided for programmatic advertising. As such, AdTech replaces manual buying and selling of online advertising space and instead establishes a more efficient and flexible form of advertising dynamics for marketers and advertisers. Viewers can be targeted in an even better optimized way and with even greater target group focus, for example by means of individualized, real-time topic management. ProSiebenSat.1 currently sells around 50% of its digital display advertising via programmatic advertising systems.
Glossary
EBITDA
Abbreviation for Earnings before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization.
Glossary
Adjusted net income
Adjusted net income is the consolidated net profit (after non-controlling interests) before the effects of purchase price allocations and additional reconciling items. These include valuation effects on financial investments, put options, and earn-out liabilities recognized in the other financial result item, as well as ineffectiveness from financial derivatives and valuation effects on the Group Share Plans.
Glossary
Leverage ratio
Common key ratio for measuring the debt position. It is calculated as the ratio of net financial debt to adjusted EBITDA of the last twelve months.
Glossary
Dividend
The share of the profit of a stock corporation distributed to the shareholders. The amount of the dividend is proposed by the Executive Board and approved by the Annual General Meeting. The
dividend depends, among other things, on the profitability, economic situation and dividend policy of the company. The basis of assessment for the distribution is the profit calculated according to commercial law.
Glossary
Leverage
Shows how high net debt is in relation to adjusted EBITDA in the last twelve months.
Glossary